Impaka ku hazaza h’ingabo z’u Rwanda ziri mu butumwa bwo kugarura amahoro muri Cabo Delgado zakomeje gufata indi ntera ku rwego mpuzamahanga, nyuma y’uruhererekane rw’ibyemezo bya politiki n’ubukungu byafashwe n’ibihugu bikomeye n’imiryango mpuzamahanga.
Ibi bibaye mu gihe Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, yafatiye ibihano inzego n’abantu bafitanye isano n’ingabo z’u Rwanda, mu ntangiriro za Werurwe 2026. Ni ibyemezo byakurikiwe n’impaka zikomeye ku ruhare rw’u Rwanda mu mutekano w’akarere ndetse n’inyungu z’ibihugu byo mu Burengerazuba.
Kuva mu 2021, ingabo z’u Rwanda zoherejwe muri Mozambique ku bufatanye n’icyo gihugu, zigamije guhashya umutwe w’iterabwoba wa Ansar al-Sunnah wari warazahaje abaturage ndetse ugahagarika imishinga minini y’ubukungu, by’umwihariko iy’ingufu za gaz.
Mu myaka hafi itanu ishize, izi ngabo zashoboye gusenya ibirindiro by’uyu mutwe, zigarura abaturage mu byabo zinatuma ibikorwa by’ubucuruzi n’ishoramari byongera gusubukurwa. Ibi byafashije cyane mu kongera icyizere ku mutekano w’akarere.
Icyemezo cya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika cyo gufatira ibihano izi ngabo cyakuruye impungenge, cyane ko cyakurikiwe n’igitutu ku bafatanyabikorwa b’u Rwanda, harimo n’Umuryango w’Ubumwe bw’u Burayi, EU.
Nubwo EU yakomeje gushaka uburyo bwo gukomeza inkunga, harimo kuyinyuza muri Mozambique, hari impungenge z’uko iyi nkunga ishobora kurangira burundu mu 2026, bikagira ingaruka ku mikorere y’ubu butumwa.
Gusa imibare igaragaza ko inkunga ya EU itarenze 20% by’ingengo y’imari u Rwanda rukoresha muri ubu butumwa, bigasobanura ko u Rwanda ari rwo rwikoreye umutwaro munini.
Perezida wa Mozambique, Daniel Francisco Chapo, yagaragaje ko nubwo ubutumwa bw’ingabo z’u Rwanda bufite igihe bwagenewe, igihugu cye cyifuza ko bwakomeza cyangwa hagashakwa ubundi buryo bwo kwirinda icyuho cy’umutekano.
Yashimangiye ko n’iyo ubu butumwa bwarangira, Mozambique izakomeza gukorana n’u Rwanda n’abafatanyabikorwa mpuzamahanga kugira ngo ibikorwa byo kurwanya iterabwoba bitazahungabana.
Mu rwego mpuzamahanga, hari ibibazo bitanu by’ingenzi bikomeje guteza impaka:
Ese u Rwanda ruzakura ingabo zarwo koko? Nubwo rwabigaragajeho ubushake, ntiharamenyekana niba ari icyemezo cya politiki kigamije igitutu cyangwa niba kizashyirwa mu bikorwa.
Ni izihe ngaruka ku mutekano wa Cabo Delgado? Abasesenguzi bavuga ko kuba izi ngabo zakurwaho byaha icyuho umutwe wa Ansar al-Sunnah, bikaba byatuma wongera kwisuganya.
Inyungu z’ibihugu by’i Burengerazuba zizamera zite? Ibigo nka ExxonMobil na TotalEnergies bifite imishinga minini ya gaz muri aka karere bishobora guhura n’ibihombo bikomeye mu gihe umutekano wahungabana.
Ese EU izakomeza inkunga? Nubwo hari uburyo bushya bwo kuyinyuza muri Mozambique, impaka ku bihano bya Amerika (secondary sanctions) zishobora gutuma ibintu bihinduka.
Ni iki kizasimbura uruhare rw’u Rwanda? Mozambique ishobora kugorwa no kubona undi mufatanyabikorwa wizewe ushobora gusimbura neza uruhare rw’ingabo z’u Rwanda mu gihe zakwitahira.
Ibi bibazo bije byiyongera ku bindi byugarije u Burayi, aho Airports Council International yagaragaje ko hashobora kubaho ibura rikomeye ry’amavuta y’indege bitewe no gufungwa kw’inzira ya Hormuz.
Iyi nzira inyuzwamo igice kinini cy’amavuta ku Isi, bityo igahungabanya ubukungu bw’u Burayi, bikiyongera ku bibazo by’umutekano bifitanye isano na Cabo Delgado.
Ibiganiro bikomeje hagati ya Mozambique, u Rwanda n’abafatanyabikorwa mpuzamahanga, aho EU ivuga ko iri gushaka uburyo bwo gukomeza gushyigikira ibikorwa byo kugarura amahoro.
Umuvugizi wa Komisiyo ya EU, Anouar El Anouni, yemeje ko ibiganiro bikomeje, ariko icyemezo cya nyuma kikazafatwa hashingiwe ku masezerano ari hagati y’impande zirebwa.
Mu gihe isi ikomeje gukurikiranira hafi iki kibazo, haracyari urujijo ku cyerekezo kizafatwa. Icyakora, icyizere gikomeje kugaragara ni uko ubufatanye mpuzamahanga bushobora gukomeza, hagamijwe kurinda ibyagezweho no gukomeza kugarura amahoro arambye muri Cabo Delgado.